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Political violence monitoring tool: pvmt

About our new tool

As election day approaches, there are multiple unforeseen events that can happen as a consequence of the results of the voting and the refusal to accept a peaceful transition of power. Civil conflict, on both small and large scales, is imminent.


Neveragaintech aims to stay on top of politically motivated threats to safety and security from extreme ideologists and militant groups. The following outlines our methodologies, and what the monitoring procedures will look like in the days leading up to the election, during the election, and the aftermath of the election,

submit an online threat/report of violent activity

Submit a tip here

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

This form will allow you to report any type of violent activity or threat

It does not matter whether you spotted it on Facebook, Twitter, Parler, Gab, etc-and there's no rigid definition of what a threat could look like. 


But if you perceive it to be a threat regarding safety and security-give us a message outlining it, and we will respond asking for more details.

What is the purpose of this?

Our team of researchers have been constantly monitoring websites where known activity of white supremacy/alt right extremism has been taking place. We do not have the bandwidth to monitor every social platform-and there are gaps in our knowledge.

By doing this, you will help our partners in law enforcement weed out false positives and identify true negatives in the future.


For the future, you will be helping us expand the data we need to make more accurate predictions with our classifier.



ADDRESSING PRIVACY

To Clarify:

We will strictly accept responses that deal with threats circulating in the public domain only-meaning threats made by anonymized profiles on Reddit, TheDonald.Win, 8kun, 4chan, Parler, Gab, Telegram.


We will not and cannot accept tips made about threats in private conversations, settings, or groups. Meaning Instagram DMs, screenshots of private social media profiles, or texts cannot be accepted via this forum as we adhere to our strict privacy standards. In that case, please reach out directly to local law enforcement and federal/local FBI tip lines for the appropriate course of action.


Neveragaintech's goal with this tool is to strictly support law enforcement efforts in preventing future attacks as an independently established organization. We are not responsible for anything further than the threat reporting process-this includes preventing actualizations of threats.


Methodology

What are we monitoring?

As a continuation of our work from previous years, we have been continually monitoring alt-right and alt-left sites that are populated by fringe communities. We will not specify them for our own safety and privacy, The channels on these websites are filled with extremist rhetoric and hate based ideologies specifically entrenched in antisemitism, sexism, racism, and conspiration against the United States government and its citizens.

How are we monitoring them?

We have built secure crawlers that can download up to hundreds of thousands of posts within 30 seconds. We classify each of these posts as being:

  • Non-Offensive (1): regular, non-threatening, non-harmful language common to the website.
  • Conspiracy (2): Theorizing about specific events and the perpetrators of them. Also, non-threatening.
  • Foul Language (3): Words that can be categorized on any other website as hateful or harmful against a specific minority, but on these websites are considered common syntax, such as (TW), nigger, jew, faggot, gook, kike, chink, etc.
  • Conspiracy (4): Callings at large to groups of people to "prepare" for an unforeseen and often negative event in the future. Callings to spread QAnon conspiracy theories, so-called "red pills", and right wing propaganda on more available media platforms.
  • Hate (4): This category delves into more dangerous semantics. Callings to eradicate or exterminate groups at large. Contains large elements of white supremacy and "superior race" theory. Threats of rape and sexual assault against women-containing elements of incel theory.
  • Threat (5): Tangible calls to action regarding any of the aforementioned categories. Dictated by vocabulary such as "will" and "going to".

What you can expect:

Over the next couple of weeks, we will update this section with the general trends we observe from our monitoring, specific examples of the aforementioned categories to develop further understanding, any large indicators of mass violence or calls to mass violence in specific locations or cities, and for a long term scale, how presidential rhetoric around election results can directly deter or instigate political violence.


Some great resources to refer to:

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/27/why-the-risk-of-election-violence-is-high/

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/political-violence-inequality-us-election

Generalized trends:

  • Contrary to previous belief, we predict that violence will be incurred from both "political alignments." Meaning, violence will propagate in smaller scale conflicts between Antifa and alt-right groups. This makes predicting violence harder in a sense because it is not one mass event instigated by one agenda at one particular event in time.
  • We began monitoring these aforementioned websites in depth around March of this year. As we monitored the language through a pandemic and racial tensions, we noticed one particular pattern, no matter the situation:
    •  Antisemitism remains as rampant as ever on almost every possible image board website. No matter the situation or the ever-changing "target" of white supremacist agenda (during periods of racial tension involving black Americans), multiple conspiracy theories, QAnon propaganda, red pills, explicit and implicit hate speech, and more continue to target Jewish people. Most of the hate directives from these sites stem from an antisemitic basis.
  • Most of the extreme alt-right partakers of these websites do not call themselves or adhere to the term "Trump supporters." Often times, they disagree with the current administration's execution of various policies.


Current events

1. Shooting in Vienna, Austria

Just as we wrote last night at about being precautious of rampant anti-Semitism no matter what events were ongoing in the world, an event today corroborated our prediction. 


Shooting near the vicinity of a synagogue today in Austria:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/world/europe/vienna-austria-attack-shooter.html 

Recommendations and plan of action:

  • Tracking the aforementioned websites. No direct implication of a manifesto, but several leads.
  • Plan of action: Recommendation to synagogues and Jewish communities across the world to take extra precautions and advising people from congregating in the next couple of days.

States most prone to voter suppression

Methodology

Monitoring alt-right websites where voter suppression/ voter suppression tactics are implicitly or explicitly referred to.

Once again, the websites and the methodologies will be kept private on this public facing website to ensure our personal safety.

We will continue adding but for now, here are high level states and cities that might be the most prone to scare tactics and suppression methodologies:

  • Counties in Georgia, New York, and Pennsylvania are being monitored right now. No direct correlation between the speech yet. Power outages and accounts of harassment have been reported on social media.


Verification of prediction at 4:03 MST:

  • https://www.inkl.com/news/trump-poll-watcher-attempts-to-enter-philadelphia-ballot-station-amid-voter-intimidation-concerns?share=XaoXxZcolNz
  •  https://twitter.com/UTLAW06/status/1323678049662062593?s=20 



monitoring as polls close

General Observation:

  • Activity on the sites has been suspended or somewhat stalled either due to a network outage or anticipation for the election results. 
  • Predict that activity will resume again once election results begin to finalize. 
  • Emphasizing once again that calls to mass violence will be sporadic, reactionary, and will emanate from extremist alignments across the board, not one specific category. 
  • In the case of the latter category, prediction and detection efforts will not be as fruitful. We will likely resume monitoring the aftermath to understand how rhetoric changes before, during, and after pivotal political events.



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